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| Photo courtesy of patriotswire.com |
I would like to say it was a surprising loss to the Titans but after the way the season played out, it was obvious they weren't a threat to return to the Super Bowl to defend their title. All season long I debated with "fans" about this team and how good they actually were. Most fans are just that, fans, that can't look at this team objectively. To them, a 12-4 record meant this team was due for another deep playoff run and as I tried to contest with them, they were sure this team was great. AS good as they were to begin the season, it became apparent that they were lacking talent in some very important places. I'm not taking anything away from the team. A 12-4 record is a good record to finish with but the level of competition to start the year, when the Patriots were 8-0, was much weaker than the competition to end the season. Finishing the last 8 games 4-4 should have been a good measure of the capabilities of this team.
Starting the season 8-0, many people in the media questioned the competition and rightfully so. The teams the Patriots played in those 8 games finished the season with a 43-69 record and only 1 of those teams finished with a record over .500 and made the playoffs (Buffalo). For the final 8 games, those teams had a combined record of 70-58 and 5 of the 8 teams were playoff teams. The numbers show that the first half of the season was a much easier schedule than the second half. The defense was tops in the NFL and the offense averaged 31PPG and 370YPG average in those first 8 games. Once the second half of the season started with Baltimore, the competition improved. Although the defense still managed to play well in most of the games, the offensive numbers plummeted and the defense failed the team when they couldn't come up with a stop on the biggest drive of the season which would have given them a first round bye. Instead, journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick led Miami down the field, scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds of the game, forcing New England to play their first Divisional Round Playoff game in a decade. Not exactly the Patriots teams we've come to know that pull out a big stop or a late score to win the game.
The defense however was not the big disappointment this year. The offense is clearly what held this team back from their goals. There were some key injuries on that side of the ball. Most notably, FB James Devlin who went out week 2 with a neck injury and starting Center David Andrews who was held out all season with blood clots in his lungs. With Devlin sidelined, Sony, Rex and James White struggled without the old school style fullback. Linebacker, Elandon Roberts tried to fill in and while he wasn't horrible, it wasn't the same rushing attack as the prior season with Devlin leading the way. The season also started without starting LT Isaiah Wynn, the Patriots #23 overall draft pick in 2018 and newest first round pick N'Keal Harry. No matter who's injured, games must still be played and all players need to be ready to start. Although Harry was a rookie and Wynn didn't play much last season, as first round picks there is a level of expectations of you. When the two returned, they did play alright. Nothing spectacular to start but Harry began to show some promise while Wynn, who took over for Trent Brown, had his problem protecting Brady's blind side but he was far from the main issue. The absence of Andrews was the biggest situation the offensive line had to deal with other than the retirement of Gronkowski. The general consensus was the offense was struggling because receivers couldn't get open for Brady. Now as true as that nay have been, Brady just didn't seem as tuned in as he has been in the past.
After starting the season with Gordon, Edelman, Dorsett and rookie Jakobi Myers, Bill gave Brady some much needed help and went and signed recently released Antonio Brown from Oakland. That only lasted 1 game which turned out to be a good game for both Brady and Brown. But it was just not to be. Brown couldn't stay off social media and Kraft had already had enough of Brown and he was released. Once Brown was released, Josh Gordon was injured and was released himself shortly after his injury leaving the team with Edelman, Dorsett, Myers and Harry. The were short at WR so Bill made a deal right before the deadline, sending a 2nd round pick to Atlanta for WR Mohamed Sanu Sr. I was shocked to see a second round pick was sent for Sanu Sr. after seeing San Francisco acquire Emmanuel Sanders from Denver for a 3rd and 5th round pick. Sanu ended up having one good game and was ineffective for the most part of the season. Saying the Patriots were thin at the position was an understatement but I believe they could have gotten a better player for a 2nd round pick. Receivers not getting separation and numerous drops plagued Brady and the offense all season. That, coupled with a struggling running game, the offense was not what we're used to seeing from them.
With all the problems the offense had to deal with, the biggest adjustment was at Tight End. Having to overcome the retirement of one of, if not the greatest TE to ever play automatically created a massive hole in the offense all around. Not having Gronk for both the running and passing game created a situation the Patriots weren't ready for. They tried their best to get a serviceable TE but it clearly wasn't enough with Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse. For starters, Watson nor LaCosse were capable of setting the edge for runs outside. They also couldn't handle Outside Linebackers or Defensive Ends when protecting the pass. Time after time I seen the TE attempt to make a block and either get pushed backwards or completely taken off their feet and out of the play. Tough to maintain a running game with your lead blocker out and your TE and OL can't create holes. As much as Gronk was missed in the running game, he was missed even more in the passing attack. First, Brady missed his big, reliable target that always seemed to make a play in crucial moments of games. This season, Edelman was the only player Brady seemed to trust, however, Jules dropped numerous passes including a pass on 3rd down while wide open at a crucial part of the Playoff game. Next, defenses were able to shrink the field without the threat of Gronk going up the seam. Not having Gronk out there allowed the defense to either bring an extra guy in the box to stop the run or to double team Edelman. Which brings me to the final reason. Brady and the Patriots like to run a lot of crossing or option routes. Without Gronk, defenses were able to play man defense on the outside against weak WR's and then double team Jules. Edelman would run a cross or option route and the Linebacker wouls slip under his route while the DB would play behind him. Julian still had a decent season, especially playing with injuries, but with him double covered most of the time, the offense had to rely on other players to make plays. The offense became very predictable with screen plays and quick slants. Defenses had little trouble making New England work for yards, first downs and touchdowns the later part of the year.
I'm no coach, but I do understand the game very well.I felt the offense should have been doing many other things when "the norm" wasn't successful. They rarely changed up the offense making it easy for defenses to game plan for them. Defensive backs were able to jump the quick routes because there was no threat over the top. Once Gordon was released, Sanu and Harry were the only WR's well over 6ft tall. They never utilized their size by going downfield and allowing someone to go up and make a play. Harry came in after his injury and did show signs of being a good athletic receiver. After the playoff loss I heard Fleger and Mazz continuously say Harry sucks. I disagree with that and don't believe he sucks, I believe McDaniels misused a guy you drafted for athleticism. Let the big body receiver go downfield and use his size against smaller DB's. He's not always going to make the catch but there were so many defensive pass interference calls made this year. They also struggled in the Red Zone. What happened to the fade and toss up to your big guy? Inside the 5 yard line all they tried to do was pound the ball in there to no avail. That leads me to mu next complaint, some may disagree but Rex Burkhead is not a good enough RB to get as many carries as he did, especially close to the goalline. OK, yes, he did make a few plays but it come back to predictable. Rex comes in the game when they're inside the 5 yard line and everyone knows its a run. They drafted a RB in the 3rd round last season with Damien Harris from Alabama and even though we can't see what happens during practice, Harris should have seen more action during the season other than a few drives during garbage time. The offense did try to get Sony Michele involved in the passing game but Sony had troubles making easy catches or getting open.
New England now goes into the off season with moves to make and many key players to resign or replace. After not advancing to the AFC Championship for the first time in 3 years, the Patriots have big decisions to make. The biggest and most important being whether to bring 42 year old Tom Brady back. Brady has expressed his frustration with the organization and the lack of a contract spanning more than a single season. So I'm assuming before any other decision is made, New England has to decide if they want to continue to compete for a championship or go the other direction and begin the rebuilding process. I believe they will sign Tom back for 2 more years but he has stated he is ready to talk to other teams. For the sake of what I'm going to say next, I'll assume Brady comes back. So the QB is signed, what's next for the organization? It's really hard to address everything that needs to be done. First, Tom needs to get on the same page with Harry, Sanu and whoever else they decide to bring in and they do need help at the position. Dedicate himself back to the development process and get comfortable with his guys because I don't think Rob Gronkowski is walking through that door. Phillip Dorsett is a Free Agent and he wasn't productive enough to bring him back. There are a couple free agents they could make a run at. Although A.J. Green is talented, he's shown that he can't stay healthy so I'd pass on him. Amari Cooper hasn't resigned with Dallas as of yet but he's going to warrant too much money that they can't afford him. Next is Emmanuel Sanders who they should have gotten over Sanu in the first place. With him going to the Super Bowl with the 49ers, he may get a really good contract so it's doubtful he'll be available. The last player that is a pending Free Agent is Larry Fitzgerald. I've always wanted him to be a Patriot. A consummate professional who's had the bad luck of playing for Arizona his entire career. Has been on a few good teams but the lure of possibly making it to another Super Bowl just may be enough to get the aging WR out of Arizona. However, he has been very loyal to them so it may be tough to convince him to leave. So now you're left with mid to low tier players such as Cobb or gaining the trust of Demaryius Thomas again or even bringing back Danny Amendola. The tough part for New England is the fact they gave up their 2nd round pick and they have many free agents and not a ton of cap room so finding a team to trade with with be a tough option. If something could be done, Stephon Diggs has shown his frustration with Cousins all season and in the first playoff game. He may want out of Minnesota and has been rumored to be connected with the Patriots. But once again, they don't have much to offer to get an impactful player. It appears that it will be 1 of 5 options. Hope Fitzgerald wants a shot to win a Super Bowl, work something out in a trade for a WR that can actually produce. Sign a mid to low tier guy that will come in but won't make much of an impact. Take your chances at drafting another WR that won't end up seeing much playing time unless he goes in to camp and really stands out and end up having 2 second year guys and a rookie or they deal with what they have and hope for the best. Now to the most appealing position that was a glaring need, Tight End. Ben Watson is a Free Agent and after retiring and then coming back, I don't see him returning for another season. There are 4-5 guys that are potential Free Agents that would be much better options than what Brady had to deal with this season. Players that could be available are, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Daniel Fells, Charles Clay and Brent Celek. The obvious best options would be Ebron, Henry and Hooper but it will come down to how much they'll cost. If you can't get either of those guys, any of the other names mentioned, with possibly the exception of Clay, would be a much better option than Watson and Lacosse although Lacosse has a year left under contract.
After addressing WR and TE, the offensive line needs major work. Wynn will be back and hopefully Andrews can come back healthy. Other than those two, there needs to be changes. Joe Thuney is a Free Agent and I doubt they'll spend the money to retain him. There are a few guys that are potential Free Agents that could come in and finally give Tom some time, but knowing Bill, he'll use their first round pick on an offensive lineman, throw just anyone in there for the time being and develop the youth as he always has done. Unless he finally comes to grips that time is running out and keeping Tom upright is their best chance to return to glory. Both guys that played Center in the absence of Andrews are Free Agents. I doubt any other team would offer them large contracts so there is a possibility Bill brings one of those guys back to take Thuneys position. Unfortunately, there most likely won't be a whole lot done on the line so it appears the line will consist of Wynn, Karras or Ferentz, Andrews, Cannon and Mason.
And now the expensive side of the ball. The big question is will any of the looming Free Agents take a discount to continue playing in New England? Devin McCourty is at the end of his 5 year contract and at 33, I doubt Bill wants to invest a large sum of money on McCourty. The Pro Bowl safety had a good year racking up 5 interceptions but from what I began to notice throughout the season, Devin slowed down a bit and appeared to become soft. It was evident during the playoff game when McCourty constantly tried to force a fumble rather than making a tackle on Henry. For a defense to stop the run, your safeties need to be physical when needed. Next is a trio of Linebackers that played significant roles on the defense. One of them actually took over for Devlin at Fulback. The players are Kyle Van Noy who's 29, Elandon Roberts 26 and Jamie Collins who is 30. It's doubtful the franchise will have the cap space to sign all three. However, I was right at the beginning of the season when I said Chace Winovich would be the rookie that makes the most impact on the team. But he's an outside rush guy that won't transition to an ILB role. If by chance they are able to bring all three back, someone is going to have to take less money to stay. Collins, who went to Cleveland from New England and came back, had a career resurrection upon his return. At 30, he could be the best candidate to take less money to stay. Even if they lose two of the three guys, they are going to have to find some options to fill those positions. This team isn't stacked with great depth at Linebacker. Lastly are two interior lineman that saw quite a bit of playing time. Both Adam Butler and Danny Shelton are looming Free Agents and other than Lawerence Guy, it's another position New England isn't deep at. Clearly the team doesn't have enough cap room to sign everyone back. Especially with two special teamers also looking at Free Agency. Matthew Slater and Nate Ebner don't do much for the offense nor the defense, but Slater is a perennial Pro Bowler on special teams. Will some other team throw enough money at Slater to lure him away? Only time will tell and even though the season is over for the Patriots, there are two teams left in the hunt so it won't be long until questions start getting answered.
As stated, it's obvious the organization won't have enough money to bring everyone back and make the changes that are needed. Even with the option to buy out players like Sanu and Burkhead, the money just isn't available, especially if the main goal is to bring Brady back who likely won't take yet another team friendly deal. Even if they decide it's time to move on from Tom, deal with Stidham and transfer to a strong run game, the Running Backs that could be available to make a difference will require large contracts. Most notably, the two guys that could be difference makers are Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon. I do believe New England does need a big punishing back but not at the cost it would require to get either of those guys. A couple other guys that could be available are Austin Eckler and Carlos Hyde. Eckler isn't a big, punishing back and would just serve as another passing back. Let's just hope that after a decent rookie season, Sony Michele just had a sophomore slump season. May not have been all his fault with the loss of Devlin and Andrews and the lack of blocking from tight end. I also doubt Belichick would go get a big money guy and limit Sony, his previous first round selection basically chalking him up as a bust.
The Tom Brady era could be at an end and with that, so does the two decades of dominance. Will Jarrett Stidham be the long term solution? If not, do they try to get Teddy Bridgewater in who filled in greatly for Drew Brees? The Patriots hold the 23rd pick in the draft and it's highly unlikely any of the top QB prospects would drop that far down. Is there a guy they like that they could get in next years draft if Brady does go, Stidham doesn't work out and they have a disastrous season? Still much too early to tell what this team will look like in September. One thing that is obvious is they'll have Brady back leading this team or they'll have moved on from Tom and a new era of New England Patriots football will begin. Whatever the case, changes have to be made for this offense to succeed and there will be new faces on defense if there aren't players already in the system that can come in and keep this defense as one of the best in the league. Stay Tuned!
New England now goes into the off season with moves to make and many key players to resign or replace. After not advancing to the AFC Championship for the first time in 3 years, the Patriots have big decisions to make. The biggest and most important being whether to bring 42 year old Tom Brady back. Brady has expressed his frustration with the organization and the lack of a contract spanning more than a single season. So I'm assuming before any other decision is made, New England has to decide if they want to continue to compete for a championship or go the other direction and begin the rebuilding process. I believe they will sign Tom back for 2 more years but he has stated he is ready to talk to other teams. For the sake of what I'm going to say next, I'll assume Brady comes back. So the QB is signed, what's next for the organization? It's really hard to address everything that needs to be done. First, Tom needs to get on the same page with Harry, Sanu and whoever else they decide to bring in and they do need help at the position. Dedicate himself back to the development process and get comfortable with his guys because I don't think Rob Gronkowski is walking through that door. Phillip Dorsett is a Free Agent and he wasn't productive enough to bring him back. There are a couple free agents they could make a run at. Although A.J. Green is talented, he's shown that he can't stay healthy so I'd pass on him. Amari Cooper hasn't resigned with Dallas as of yet but he's going to warrant too much money that they can't afford him. Next is Emmanuel Sanders who they should have gotten over Sanu in the first place. With him going to the Super Bowl with the 49ers, he may get a really good contract so it's doubtful he'll be available. The last player that is a pending Free Agent is Larry Fitzgerald. I've always wanted him to be a Patriot. A consummate professional who's had the bad luck of playing for Arizona his entire career. Has been on a few good teams but the lure of possibly making it to another Super Bowl just may be enough to get the aging WR out of Arizona. However, he has been very loyal to them so it may be tough to convince him to leave. So now you're left with mid to low tier players such as Cobb or gaining the trust of Demaryius Thomas again or even bringing back Danny Amendola. The tough part for New England is the fact they gave up their 2nd round pick and they have many free agents and not a ton of cap room so finding a team to trade with with be a tough option. If something could be done, Stephon Diggs has shown his frustration with Cousins all season and in the first playoff game. He may want out of Minnesota and has been rumored to be connected with the Patriots. But once again, they don't have much to offer to get an impactful player. It appears that it will be 1 of 5 options. Hope Fitzgerald wants a shot to win a Super Bowl, work something out in a trade for a WR that can actually produce. Sign a mid to low tier guy that will come in but won't make much of an impact. Take your chances at drafting another WR that won't end up seeing much playing time unless he goes in to camp and really stands out and end up having 2 second year guys and a rookie or they deal with what they have and hope for the best. Now to the most appealing position that was a glaring need, Tight End. Ben Watson is a Free Agent and after retiring and then coming back, I don't see him returning for another season. There are 4-5 guys that are potential Free Agents that would be much better options than what Brady had to deal with this season. Players that could be available are, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Daniel Fells, Charles Clay and Brent Celek. The obvious best options would be Ebron, Henry and Hooper but it will come down to how much they'll cost. If you can't get either of those guys, any of the other names mentioned, with possibly the exception of Clay, would be a much better option than Watson and Lacosse although Lacosse has a year left under contract.
After addressing WR and TE, the offensive line needs major work. Wynn will be back and hopefully Andrews can come back healthy. Other than those two, there needs to be changes. Joe Thuney is a Free Agent and I doubt they'll spend the money to retain him. There are a few guys that are potential Free Agents that could come in and finally give Tom some time, but knowing Bill, he'll use their first round pick on an offensive lineman, throw just anyone in there for the time being and develop the youth as he always has done. Unless he finally comes to grips that time is running out and keeping Tom upright is their best chance to return to glory. Both guys that played Center in the absence of Andrews are Free Agents. I doubt any other team would offer them large contracts so there is a possibility Bill brings one of those guys back to take Thuneys position. Unfortunately, there most likely won't be a whole lot done on the line so it appears the line will consist of Wynn, Karras or Ferentz, Andrews, Cannon and Mason.
And now the expensive side of the ball. The big question is will any of the looming Free Agents take a discount to continue playing in New England? Devin McCourty is at the end of his 5 year contract and at 33, I doubt Bill wants to invest a large sum of money on McCourty. The Pro Bowl safety had a good year racking up 5 interceptions but from what I began to notice throughout the season, Devin slowed down a bit and appeared to become soft. It was evident during the playoff game when McCourty constantly tried to force a fumble rather than making a tackle on Henry. For a defense to stop the run, your safeties need to be physical when needed. Next is a trio of Linebackers that played significant roles on the defense. One of them actually took over for Devlin at Fulback. The players are Kyle Van Noy who's 29, Elandon Roberts 26 and Jamie Collins who is 30. It's doubtful the franchise will have the cap space to sign all three. However, I was right at the beginning of the season when I said Chace Winovich would be the rookie that makes the most impact on the team. But he's an outside rush guy that won't transition to an ILB role. If by chance they are able to bring all three back, someone is going to have to take less money to stay. Collins, who went to Cleveland from New England and came back, had a career resurrection upon his return. At 30, he could be the best candidate to take less money to stay. Even if they lose two of the three guys, they are going to have to find some options to fill those positions. This team isn't stacked with great depth at Linebacker. Lastly are two interior lineman that saw quite a bit of playing time. Both Adam Butler and Danny Shelton are looming Free Agents and other than Lawerence Guy, it's another position New England isn't deep at. Clearly the team doesn't have enough cap room to sign everyone back. Especially with two special teamers also looking at Free Agency. Matthew Slater and Nate Ebner don't do much for the offense nor the defense, but Slater is a perennial Pro Bowler on special teams. Will some other team throw enough money at Slater to lure him away? Only time will tell and even though the season is over for the Patriots, there are two teams left in the hunt so it won't be long until questions start getting answered.
As stated, it's obvious the organization won't have enough money to bring everyone back and make the changes that are needed. Even with the option to buy out players like Sanu and Burkhead, the money just isn't available, especially if the main goal is to bring Brady back who likely won't take yet another team friendly deal. Even if they decide it's time to move on from Tom, deal with Stidham and transfer to a strong run game, the Running Backs that could be available to make a difference will require large contracts. Most notably, the two guys that could be difference makers are Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon. I do believe New England does need a big punishing back but not at the cost it would require to get either of those guys. A couple other guys that could be available are Austin Eckler and Carlos Hyde. Eckler isn't a big, punishing back and would just serve as another passing back. Let's just hope that after a decent rookie season, Sony Michele just had a sophomore slump season. May not have been all his fault with the loss of Devlin and Andrews and the lack of blocking from tight end. I also doubt Belichick would go get a big money guy and limit Sony, his previous first round selection basically chalking him up as a bust.
The Tom Brady era could be at an end and with that, so does the two decades of dominance. Will Jarrett Stidham be the long term solution? If not, do they try to get Teddy Bridgewater in who filled in greatly for Drew Brees? The Patriots hold the 23rd pick in the draft and it's highly unlikely any of the top QB prospects would drop that far down. Is there a guy they like that they could get in next years draft if Brady does go, Stidham doesn't work out and they have a disastrous season? Still much too early to tell what this team will look like in September. One thing that is obvious is they'll have Brady back leading this team or they'll have moved on from Tom and a new era of New England Patriots football will begin. Whatever the case, changes have to be made for this offense to succeed and there will be new faces on defense if there aren't players already in the system that can come in and keep this defense as one of the best in the league. Stay Tuned!
